Central Florida Development Spotlight: Why Smart Money is Moving Dirt in 2025

While some markets are hitting the brakes, Central Florida continues to be the engine driving residential development nationwide. The data tells a compelling story: Orlando leads all major metros with 2.7% population growth, adding nearly 76,000 new residents in 2024 alone. That's roughly 1,500 people moving to the region every week—all needing places to live.

But here's what makes this cycle different: we're not dealing with speculative frenzy or unsustainable demand spikes. This is structural growth backed by job creation, international migration, and a regulatory environment that's actually working with developers instead of against them.

The numbers don't lie. Orlando's employment base expanded by 1.8% year-over-year through July 2025, with particularly strong gains in sectors that drive household formation: Education & Health (+3.3%), Leisure & Hospitality (+3.1%), and Construction (+2.6%). Bureau of Labor Statistics

Meanwhile, Florida captured 84% of the nation's international migration gains in 2023-2024—over 411,000 people—providing the kind of demographic tailwind that developers dream about. U.S. Census Bureau This isn't tourism-driven volatility; it's families and professionals choosing Florida as their permanent home base.

Here's where it gets interesting for developers. After years of either feast-or-famine inventory conditions, Central Florida has settled into what I call "Goldilocks territory"—not too tight, not too loose, but just right for sustainable development.

Orlando's resale market has stabilized around $390,000 median pricing with 5.3 months of inventory—balanced conditions that allow new construction to compete on value and features rather than just availability. Orlando Regional REALTOR Association For builders, this means less pressure to chase the market up or down and more opportunity to focus on delivering quality product at sustainable margins.

The multifamily sector tells a similar story. After a period of oversupply concerns in 2024, absorption has caught up with deliveries. With 21,600 units still in construction or lease-up as of mid-2024, the market is working through inventory in an orderly fashion—setting up for stronger fundamentals in 2025-2026. HUD Market Analysis

If you're not factoring the Live Local Act into your development strategy, you're leaving money on the table. This isn't just another affordable housing program—it's the most significant entitlement tool Florida has created in decades.

For qualified projects (40% of units affordable at 120% AMI for 30 years), the LLA provides state preemption on density, height, and use restrictions in commercial and industrial zones. Translation: you can build bigger, faster, and with more certainty than traditional residential zoning allows. Florida Housing Coalition

The 2025 amendments make it even better, clarifying height and density baselines while reducing litigation risk. Smart developers are already using LLA provisions to unlock sites that were previously constrained by local zoning—particularly in commercial corridors near transit and employment centers. Holland & Knight

Yes, construction costs remain elevated—Florida-specific materials still run 4-8% above year-ago levels, adding roughly $10,000 per home. Florida TaxWatch But here's the key: inflation has cooled significantly from peak levels, and experienced developers are finding ways to manage through disciplined specification control and strategic trade relationships.

The NAHB breaks down new home costs as 64.4% construction, 13.7% finished lot, and 11% pre-tax profit—providing clear benchmarks for feasibility analysis. National Association of Home Builders With materials inflation moderating and labor markets stabilizing, developers who locked favorable trade relationships are positioning themselves for improved margins through 2025.

Central Florida's infrastructure investments continue to enhance development fundamentals. The I-4 Beyond the Ultimate program is delivering critical improvements including the Sand Lake Road interchange (completion 2027) and multiple Seminole County projects completed in 2025. I-4 Beyond

The planned SunRail extension to Orlando International Airport represents a longer-term catalyst for transit-oriented development, particularly for projects incorporating Live Local Act provisions. Central Florida Roads Even before rail service expands, improved corridor access is reducing commute friction and supporting mixed-use development.

For developers and investors positioning for the next phase of Central Florida growth, the playbook is clear:

Target Payment-Conscious Buyers: With mortgage rates in the mid-6% range, successful projects are leading with payment solutions—strategic buydowns, efficient floor plans, and value engineering that maintains quality while controlling monthly costs.

Leverage Policy Tools: The Live Local Act opens doors in commercial corridors that were previously off-limits for residential. Projects near major employment centers and future transit can achieve dramatically higher yields through LLA entitlements.

Focus on Growth Corridors: Polk, Osceola, and outer Orange County continue to capture spillover demand from core Orlando markets. The Villages remains the nation's top-selling master-planned community with 3,208 sales in 2024, proving sustained demand for well-executed residential product. RCLCO

Despite recent improvements, Zonda's Lot Supply Index shows the market remains "significantly undersupplied" nationally, with Central Florida reflecting similar constraints. Zonda Home This creates opportunity for developers with entitled land positions—particularly sites that can benefit from Live Local Act provisions or proximity to infrastructure improvements.

The fundamentals supporting Central Florida development aren't cyclical—they're structural. Population growth driven by job creation and migration, regulatory tools that enable smarter development, and infrastructure investments that enhance connectivity all point to sustained opportunity for well-positioned projects.

Market conditions have normalized from the extremes of 2021-2023, creating space for developers to compete on product quality, location benefits, and financial solutions rather than just availability. That's a much healthier environment for sustainable development and long-term value creation.

🏗️ Development Opportunity Alert

Speaking of well-positioned development opportunities, I'm currently working with an exceptional 328.6-acre residential development site in Polk County, strategically located along the new toll road extension. This fully-entitled property is approved for 862 single-family units and represents exactly the type of growth-corridor opportunity that's driving Central Florida's development momentum.

If you're interested in residential development land that checks all the boxes—entitled, well-located, and positioned for the region's continued expansion—I'd welcome the opportunity to discuss the details once our marketing materials are finalized.

Contact me at [email protected] for more information.

Brett Vogeler brings decades of experience in business brokerage, real estate development, and commercial property ownership to his analysis of Central Florida markets. His insights combine on-the-ground deal-making experience with comprehensive market research to help clients identify and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

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